India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
Moody's Ratings has highlighted that Indian banks are among the most exposed in the Asia-Pacific region to the West Asia crisis, primarily due to India's high dependence on energy imports, which could lead to increased inflation, higher interest rates, and strained borrower cash flows.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, extended their rally for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a significant drop in crude oil prices and strong performance from IT firms, despite mixed global cues.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict's impact on the global economy, particularly energy security, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He also engaged with GCC ambassadors and his Sri Lankan and German counterparts on the same issue.
Goldman Sachs has materially lowered its earnings growth forecast for Indian companies by a cumulative 9 percentage points over the next two years.
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
Analysts predict that developments in US-Iran negotiations, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and key global economic data will be the primary drivers of gold and silver prices in the coming week, with a strong focus on talks in Switzerland.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged significantly in early trade, mirroring a global rally and a sharp decline in crude oil prices following the finalisation of a peace deal between the US and Iran to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Moody's Ratings has reduced India's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6 per cent, citing subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity due to higher energy costs and global uncertainties.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair, points out Sunita Narain.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged states to balance the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence with the need to safeguard against social challenges like cyber fraud and drug abuse. He also warned of the risks posed by El Nino conditions, calling for stronger water conservation measures and emphasising the collective resolve towards a 'Viksit Bharat'.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a second consecutive session, with the Sensex closing 736 points higher, driven by a global equity rally and a significant drop in crude oil prices following the finalisation of a peace deal between the US and Iran to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
The OECD projects India's GDP to grow at 7.6% in the current fiscal year and 6.1% in 2026-27, despite global economic challenges stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy price volatility.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
Opposition MPs in the Rajya Sabha criticised the Modi government's economic policies, citing the LPG crisis, lack of energy security, and concerns over the Economic Stabilisation Fund.
'Markets never fully lose hope. But an important shift could come if the Strait remains closed -- moving from high prices to no prices.'
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed lower, snapping a two-day rally, as a spike in crude oil prices, triggered by reports of fresh US military operations in southern Iran, dampened investor sentiment and reignited fears of renewed energy supply disruptions.
'OMCs are incurring losses of Rs 1,000 crore per day due to the West Asia crisis.'
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
One Indian oil tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while others turned back after Iran signalled the waterway's closure, amidst rising tensions and disruptions to global energy flows.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia are beginning to disrupt India's automotive supply chain, leading to rising commodity prices, logistics bottlenecks, material shortages, and pressure on consumer demand, with two-wheeler makers already raising prices.
Live updates on the US-Israel-Iran war: Trump escalates threats, Iran retaliates, and oil prices surge as the Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts global markets.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis is impacting lifestyles worldwide, from reduced gold purchases in India to energy conservation in Europe and Japan, as governments urge citizens to adapt to the global energy shock.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
West Asia conflict triggers sharp sell-off in Indian markets, with realty, banking and auto stocks leading losses amid energy shock fears.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a third consecutive day, with the Sensex climbing 753 points and the Nifty closing above 24,550, driven by a drop in crude oil prices and optimism surrounding potential peace talks between Iran and the US.
